Moviepie.com's Slice: Oscars 2004 - Moviepie's Picks and Predictions

OSCARS 2004: Picks and Predictions

Who Should Win, Who Will Win, and Who Was Left Out

[February 20, 2005] - by Linda

Check out the full list of nominees (and eventual winners!) of Oscar Nominations 2004, plus read Vickie's "Love It and Loathe It" recap of the awards show, and Linda Picks Apart the Oscars.

BEST PICTURE:

   The Aviator
   Finding Neverland
   Million Dollar Baby
   Ray
   Sideways

Let's just start by saying that Finding Neverland doesn't have a chance, and Ray will be rewarded for Best Actor. So that leaves three fighters duking it out: The big-budget, sprawling epic The Aviator, which would finally give Martin Scorcese an Oscar; the critics-darling Sideways, a comedy about adults, for a change; and Clint Eastwood's tear-jerker boxing drama Million Dollar Baby, that isn't really about boxing at all. Aviator seemed to have it locked in... about a month ago. I think momentum has shifted to Baby's corner, and heck, I'll rather it win than the bloated Aviator anyways!

Who should win: Million Dollar Baby
Who will win: Million Dollar Baby
Who was left out: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, the most original, clever, strange, sweet, sad romance... and, in my opinion, the best movie of the year.

BEST DIRECTOR:

   Martin Scorcese, The Aviator
   Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
   Taylor Hackford, Ray
   Alexander Payne, Sideways
   Mike Leigh, Vera Drake

Every year, voters bump a Best Picture director (in this case Finding Neverland's Marc Forster) in favor of a dark horse (this year Vera Drake's Mike Leigh). For the dark horse, regardless of their fabulousness (as in the case of fabulous Mike Leigh), the honor is the nomination. So that means, it will be between Scorcese (once again, "He's due! He's never won! He's had a great career!") and Eastwood ("He's had a great career! But he's getting better and better!"). But the upset might go to Alexander Payne. Critics LOVED the buddy-movie Sideways, and this might be their way to sneak a major award to the movie. But I think Eastwood has the momentum. Sorry Marty.

Who should win: Clint Eastwood
Who will win: Clint Eastwood
Who was left out: Michel Gondry, for the magic, mind-bending memory puzzle that was Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.

BEST ACTOR:

   Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
   Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
   Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
   Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
   Jamie Foxx, Ray

As much as we love Johnny, Neverland wasn't his most shining moment as an actor. Don Cheadle (WE LOVE YOU DON!!) is a dark horse, and we'd be more than delighted to see him win. He's sooooo goood. Clint won't get this one, considering the competition. So it will obviously be between the two Golden Globe winners: Leonardo DiCaprio (who we still think looks like a 16-year-old, regardless of his role) and Jamie Foxx. Let's just say if Jamie Foxx doesn't win this one, Hollywood will spontaneously combust in front of a worldwide audience.

Who should win: Don Cheadle
Who will win: Jamie Foxx
Who was left out: Jim Carrey, of course, for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Hollywood seems to think it is best to toss him a Golden Globe occasionally.

BEST ACTRESS:

   Annette Bening, Being Julia
   Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
   Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
   Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
   Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

There's the divine Kate Winslet and her wild orange hair as Clementine; newcomer Catalina Sandino Moreno's powerful and strong turn as a drug mule; and Imelda Staunton's matronly abortionist. But let's be honest, it's a two-woman race. Who would have predicted this rematch? Hilary Swank won an Oscar for her stunning, once-in-a-lifetime role in Boys Don't Cry, besting, yes, Annette Bening in American Beauty. Hilary, thought to be a flash in the pan by some, came back from nowhere with her impressive role in Million Dollar Baby. But then Annette glowed as an aging diva actress in Being Julia. The thing is, hardly anyone saw Being Julia, and Baby's fresh in voter's minds. It's Swank again.

Who should win: Hilary Swank
Who will win: Hilary Swank
Who was left out: Yes, it was a weak year for women's roles, and yes, it would be tough to come up with one more worthy performance. But if Renee Zellweger could be nominated for her comic turn in Bridget Jones, heck, why not Jennifer Garner in awfully charming 13 Going on 30? Just a thought.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

   Alan Alda, The Aviator
   Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
   Jamie Foxx, Collateral
   Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
   Clive Owen, Closer

Clive Owen surprised many by winning a Golden Globe for his performance in Closer. I think Clive kicks ass, but the Academy may not feel it is his time yet. Jamie Foxx will be rewarded for Ray, not this one, and Alan Alda had a great performance, but the nomination is the honor for him. This category has been known to take chances on comedic performances in the past, so don't rule out Thomas Haden Church's hilarious turn as the adolescent 40-something party boy in Sideways, but I think they're going to give it to Morgan Freeman. I mean, who doesn't love Morgan Freeman?

Who should win: Thomas Haden Church
Who will win: Morgan Freeman
Who was left out: Sexy-as-hell Peter Sarsgaard, plays a sexy, bookish bisexual who lands BOTH Mr. and Mrs. Kinsey.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

   Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
   Laura Linney, Kinsey
   Virginia Madsen, Sideways
   Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda
   Natalie Portman, Closer

Despite the surprise win of the Golden Globe, I think Natalie Portman should just appreciate the nomination, as should first-time nominee Sophie Okonedo. We heart Laura Linney, except we think she was wasted in Kinsey. That leaves two women who have been raking in the early awards: Cate Blanchett and Virginia Madsen. Surprisingly Blanchett has been gaining momentum over early favorite Madsen. Is Sideways too small of a movie? Will middle-aged-male voters' libidos and dreams take over and give wonderfully grounded Madsen the award, or will they honor Blanchett for the love-it or hate-it turn as Hollywood legend Katharine Hepburn?

Who should win: Virginia Madsen
Who will win: Cate Blanchett
Who was left out: The Oscars love luminous, tragic women, and none did it better than the heartbreaking Belén Rueda in The Sea Inside.

BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL):

   The Aviator
   Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
   Hotel Rwanda
   The Incredibles
   Vera Drake

If The Aviator isn't sweeping the awards, it is because voters realized that the storytelling was a bit of a sprawling mess. Mike Leigh's films (Vera Drake) are famous for being practically improv, so I'm not sure if he can take full credit. Rwanda hasn't won any early awards. So this leaves two cleverly-written films: The Incredibles and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Right about now the Academy is feeling guilty for practically ignoring Sunshine, so they'll be sure to give it this award. They darn well better!

Who should win: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Who will win: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Who was left out: The most-quoted screenplay of the younger-crowd is none of the above: it is the freakin' hilarious Napoleon Dynamite. What do I think of the Academy's snub? IDIOTS! GOSH!

BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTATION):

   Before Sunset
   Finding Neverland
   Million Dollar Baby
   The Motorcycle Diaries
   Sideways

Don't discount Motorcycle, as foreign language films have won screenplay awards in the past. Before Sunset was ALL talk, but not much action. Literary fans have loved that, but will the Academy? Neverland adapted some characters right out of the real-life story, and some people took offense to that. So once again, this one will probably be a race between two Best Picture nominees: Million Dollar Baby and Sideways. Baby was a touching, character-driven story (with occasional harsh blows) that took its time revealing its soul. Sideways was a hilarious mid-life crisis buddy movie that had a surprising amount of truth and heart. This will be the consolation prize for Sideways.

Who should win: Sideways
Who will win: Sideways
Who was left out: Tina Fey took a non-fiction book on teenage girls' behavior, and turned it into Mean Girls, a Heathers for the next generation.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

   The Incredibles
   Shark Tale
   Shrek 2

This one is pretty much between The Incredibles, Pixar's latest (and everyone LOVES Pixar), and the money-making behemoth Shrek 2, which was the top box office draw of any movie all year. Though Shrek 2 made the big bucks, this is its only nomination. The Incredibles actually has four Oscar nominations, so I give it the edge here.

Who should win: The Incredibles
Who will win: The Incredibles
Who was left out: Hayao Miyazaki (Spirited Away) did not release a film in the U.S. this year, so I have no opinion.

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