Moviepie.com's Slice: Oscars 2002 - Moviepie's Picks and Predictions

OSCARS 2002: Picks and Predictions

Who Should Win, Who Will Win, and Who Was Left Out

[March 16, 2003] - by Eric

The Oscar nominations have been out for quite some time, and with the show less than two weeks away, it's time for me to make some predictions! One of the most surprising things about this year's nominations is how, in fact, not surprising they are. That didn't make them any less interesting, of course, it just makes me actually approve of them, which is a strange feeling to get used to.

For example, unlike pretty much any other year that I've been following these awards, I've actually seen most of the nominated films (several times, in many cases). And most non-freaks have seen all of the nominees too, which is a real rarity. Chicago and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers in particular have enjoyed some phenomenal box office success thus far. Also notable is the lack of that one undeserving nominee that nabs oodles of nominations despite its suffocating medocrity. Some films that have filled this position in the past include Chocolat, The Cider House Rules, A Beautiful Mind, and Gladiator. And most exciting of all, Julianne Moore is double-nominated for Far From Heaven and The Hours! Woo! So here are my thoughts on what to expect this year. (Oh, and keep in mind that it's a thin line between predictions and wishes.)

BEST PICTURE:

Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Pianist

Even if The Two Towers didn't score any other major nominations, I'm hugely pleased that it made it into the Best Picture category. I was expecting it to be dismissed as "just a sequel," not because being a sequel makes it not as good, but because they already showered the first one in nominations last year. So yay. I believe this all comes down to The Hours vs. Chicago. Until now, they've been competing in separate divisions ("Drama" vs. "Comedy or Musical"), and they both won Best Picture and Best Actress Golden Globes. As films, they're such polar opposites, but they're equally great. The only edge that Chicago has over The Hours is that it's a crowd-pleaser—critics and audiences both can't get enough of it. And the only edge that The Hours has over Chicago is that it's heavy and dramatic (in a thematic way, not in an "Amaya from The Real World: Hawaii" way), something the Academy obviously drools over. If I had to make the call right now, I'd say that Chicago's popularity, which has only gained as it opened on hundreds more screens a few weeks ago, plus the fact that it's been ages since any film that can accurately be described as "fun" (or "a musical," for that matter) has won Best Picture, will result in it barely winning.

My pick:   The Hours
Reality check:   Chicago
They forgot to nominate:   Far From Heaven

BEST DIRECTOR:

Rob Marshall, Chicago
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
Stephen Daldry, The Hours
Roman Polanski, The Pianist
Pedro Almodóvar, Talk to Her (Hable con ella)

Martin Scorcese

Rob Marshall and Stephen Daldry's films are getting plenty of awards, buzz, and attention, but they're not big names like the other three, and this category seems too fraught with politics for them to have a real chance. For one thing, it's still very hard to tell how Roman Polanski's 1970's sex scandal (he raped a 13-year-old girl) will affect his chances of winning—some argue that Oscar loves to forgive past offenders (there is actually evidence for this, though I don't know it off the top of my head); some argue that the fact that Polanski isn't even allowed back into the country will make voters reluctant to give the award to a man who can't even be there to accept it. And, of course, plenty of voters just think he's a scumbag and won't vote for him for that reason. I'm predicting a win for Martin Scorsese, also for more political reasons than artistic: Gangs of New York has sparked an avalanche of attention for the oft-nominated, never-won, obviously-great director, and though not everyone agrees on the merits of his film, everyone seems to think that Gangs is his ticket to an Oscar that will represent all his other missed chances.

My pick:  Stephen Daldry, The Hours
Reality check:   Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
They forgot to nominate:   Alexander Payne, About Schmidt

BEST ACTOR:

Adrien Brody, The Pianist
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Michael Caine, The Quiet American
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt

Jack Nicholson in About Schmidt

Considering the filmmakers' behavior thus far, I'm surprised they weren't pretentious enough to campaign to have Nicolas Cage nominated twice, once for each of the characters he played in Adaptation. Not to make fun of what is in fact a great performance(s?), but see my comments in the Best Adapted Screenplay category below. Michael Caine was something of a surprise, if only because The Quiet American was all but lost in the flurry of Oscar momentum-building during the last few months. He won for a merely average performance in The Cider House Rules a few years ago, so I don't think they're going to let him win again this time, even if he does deserve it (which I don't know, because I didn't see The Quiet American). Jack Nicholson also won not too long ago, but his performance in About Schmidt is considered by many to be the best he's ever given. The fact that he's such an accomplished actor and an Academy favorite would normally land him ahead of Adrien Brody, but I have a feeling that voters will want to hand him this prize as a way of rewarding the widely acclaimed The Pianist without actually giving an award to Roman "a rapist" Polanski.

My pick:   Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
Reality check:   Adrien Brody, The Pianist
They forgot to nominate:   Leonardo DiCaprio, Catch Me If You Can

BEST ACTRESS:

Salma Hayek, Frida
Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Renée Zellweger, Chicago

Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven

All five of these performances are the kind of career-defining performances that will be remembered for years to come, which makes this category hard to predict. To oversimplify, though, my bet would be that this is between Nicole Kidman and Julianne Moore. Kidman's literal disappearance into the role of Virginia Woolf is more of an outright departure and thus more noticeable. Kidman had a great 2001 as well (turning in magnificent performances in Moulin Rouge and The Others), but Moore has more overall credibility; she's been making great movies for several more years than Kidman has. Unfortunately, though it gathered a considerable amount of awards and word-of-mouth momentum in the fall, Far From Heaven seems to have lost its momentum to The Hours just in time for the most crucial period of Oscar consideration. Then, of course, there's the chance that those two will cancel each other out and Renée Zellweger will cash in on a Chicago sweep (she had a surprise win over Nicole Kidman last week at the SAG awards).

My pick:  Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Reality check:   Nicole Kidman, The Hours
They forgot to nominate:   Maggie Gyllenhaal, Secretary

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Ed Harris, The Hours
Paul Newman, Road to Perdition
John C. Reilly, Chicago
Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can

Ed Harris in The Hours

The big surprises in this category are John C. Reilly and Christopher Walken. Both are deserving, of course, but I don't think a lot of people saw it coming. The great John C. Reilly could be this year's Jim Broadbent, appearing in supporting roles in four critically acclaimed films in this year alone (Chicago, The Hours, The Good Girl, Gangs of New York). Broadbent won last year, but Chris Cooper is another valuable player who has also been appearing in critically acclaimed supporting roles for years, and is now garnering more attention for his role in Adaptation than all of the other nominees combined.

My pick:  Ed Harris, The Hours
Reality check:   Chris Cooper, Adaptation
They forgot to nominate:   Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Julianne Moore, The Hours
Queen Latifah, Chicago
Meryl Streep, Adaptation
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago

Meryl Streep in Adaptation

This is a great category, one in which I saw all the nominees' films, and I literally think that each woman deserves the award. It's not so much fun when you're trying to make predictions, though. On the Chicago front, Catherine Zeta-Jones has the edge over Queen Latifah, simply because it was the more major role. Meryl Streep might have the edge over Julianne Moore because of Moore's double nomination, and Streep's noticeable snub in the Best Actress category. And they've both been nominated many times without winning (Moore hasn't been around as long as Streep, but she has been nominated 4 times in 5 years; Streep hasn't won in 20 years, though she's been nominated 9 times in that period). Meanwhile, Kathy Bates's brilliant comedic performance in About Schmidt might get left at the wayside in the clamor to give the prize to either Streep or Moore, both of whom did excellent double duty in dramatic films this year. Recently, however, Catherine Zeta-Jones has been getting all the Supporting Actress awards, so don't be surprised if she walks away a winner.

My pick:   Julianne Moore, The Hours
Reality check:   Meryl Streep, Adaptation
They forgot to nominate:   Samantha Morton, Minority Report

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven
Jay Cocks and Steve Zaillian and Kenneth Lonergan, Gangs of New York
Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Pedro Almodóvar, Talk to Her
Carlos Cuarón and Alfonso Cuarón, Y Tu Mamá También

I'm glad that My Big Fat Greek Wedding nabbed a screenwriting nod, but I'm just as glad that it didn't make surprise appearances in the more major categories as many were predicting. Wedding's popularity has reached a peak where people are beginning to no longer regard it as a pleasing runaway success, but omnipresent, annoying and overrated. I liked it quite a bit, and I think it does deserve this nomination, but I'm glad it left the major award slots to more deserving contenders. Gangs of New York is also experiencing some backlash, which is unfortunate because it really is deserving of the major nominations it received. It's a difficult film, though, and if there's any justice in this world, Todd Haynes will walk home with the Oscar.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Peter Hedges and Chris Weitz & Paul Weitz, About a Boy
Charlie Kaufman and Donald Kaufman, Adaptation
Bill Condon, Chicago
David Hare, The Hours
Ronald Harwood, The Pianist

I don't know about you, but I've just about had it with this "Donald Kaufman" business. It was edgy for, like, a week. Then the filmmakers refused to talk about it in interviews, and now "Donald" has gotten both Golden Globe and Oscar nominations, and HE DOESN'T EVEN EXIST. By sitting here and being made of molecules, I have accomplished more than Donald Kaufman has ever even thought about. Yet he could theoretically possess an Oscar in two months. Nevertheless, it is a dynamite screenplay. What I don't get is why they keep billing it as an adaptation of Susan Orlean's The Orchid Thief. Sure, the movie is about Susan Orlean, but The Hours isn't based on Mrs. Dalloway, is it? This one will go to The Hours because it was such a fundamentally difficult book to realize cinematically, and David Hare succeeded brilliantly. Its only competition comes from Chicago, which might snatch this up if it sweeps, and Adaptation, which seems specifically designed to win this award (being sharp, hilarious, and wonderfully written doesn't change the fact that its so-not-gimmicky-its-gimmicky).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Ice Age
Lilo & Stitch
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
Spirited Away
Treasure Planet

If the net result of their expanding the category to include five nominees instead of three is that Treasure Planet and Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron get nominated, I'm thinking they should have left it the way it was. If Spirited Away doesn't win this one by a landslide, there will be hell to pay.

[Read Jerry's 2002 Oscar Nomination Wrap-up]

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