- by Jerry
[November 2, 2001]

There’s a battle going on for the hearts and minds of kids. It is being waged starting November 2nd in movie theaters, video stores, fast-food restaurants and toy stores.

And your wallet will be taking the biggest hit.

The participants: Shrek, DreamWorks’ fractured fairy tale starring a lovable green ogre, which is making its DVD and VHS debut after a hugely successful theatrical run; and Monsters, Inc., the latest computer-animation effort from Disney partner Pixar, about an oddball group of characters who are actually more frightened of children than the other way around.

“Who wins? The kids. No question about it,” says Paul Dergarabedian, president of the box-office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations Co., Inc.

To be sure, there are other winners, starting with movie theaters. With many of the biggest chains in various stages of bankruptcy proceedings (or recently emerged from them), box-office hits are more welcome than ever. And if Monsters comes anywhere close to the $267 million performance tallied by Shrek, making it the highest-grossing movie of the year, theater owners will be thrilled.

“Monsters, Inc. is a great way to kick off the season,” says Damon Rubio, vice president of operations at UltraStar Cinemas, the eight-theater Carlsbad-based chain that has locations in Fontana, Rialto and Moreno Valley. “When Harry Potter opens, it will be overshadowed, but leading up to that, it’s going to be a great way to get people geared up for seeing the holiday product.”

While Monsters certainly has big box-office potential, the movie will likely have a tougher time of it than Shrek. The big green guy had little serious competition for kids, but the inhabitants of Monstropolis are looking at Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone—which many consider to be fall’s biggest movie—invading their territory on Nov. 16.

Given that, some observers predict Monsters will open huge then stall out around $150 million. Still, that’s a pretty good neighborhood, considering Chicken Run ($107 million in 2000), Mulan ($121 million in 1998) and Pocahontas ($142 million in 1995) never made it there.

The Shrek effect

Likewise, Shrek is also expected to post some pretty big numbers on the home video front.

“Collectively, with VHS and DVD, it has a shot at getting into the 15 million range (in sales), and maybe higher,” says Scott Hettrick, editor of the trade magazine Video Business.

That won’t be enough to knock off the current sales champ, Disney’s Lion King, which has posted about 30 million VHS sales. (The movie is not yet available on DVD.)

Nor will that rival Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, remastered for last month’s DVD debut, Aladdin and Beauty and the Beast. All three have tallied sales in the high 20 millions.

But Shrek could easily put to rest a recent DVD record set by Star Wars: Episode I—The Phantom Menace. The title set a first-week sales mark in the format, with 2.2 million snatched up in the seven days after its Oct. 16 release. That translates into more than $45 million in consumer spending.

Although they won’t officially be counted until today (Nov. 2), Shrek has already chalked up plenty of sales. Video giant Blockbuster has been taking orders for the movie for the past month, offering it free with the purchase of a $25 10-week rental card. The promotion, which ended November 1st, has “performed ahead of projections,” says spokesman Kevin Gardner.

Also, to maximize those first-week sales, DreamWorks is releasing the title on a Friday—a bigger movie-watching day than Tuesday, when most new videos become available.

Those who purchase the movie will need extra time this weekend to take it all in. The two-disc DVD set is packed with extras that include games and music for kids, a documentary about the computer technology needed to create the movie, a commentary by the co-directors (Andrew Adamson and Vicky Jenson) and producer (Aron Warner), and an extra three minutes added to the film specifically for the home video release.

And while it’s not official, some corporate one-upmanship also may have played into the decision to release Shrek on Nov. 2, a date that Disney had long ago pegged for Monsters, Inc.

DreamWorks was co-founded by a former Disney chieftain, Jeffrey Katzenberg, and early on he hired away several of the company’s success stories, including Shrek screenwriters and co-producers Ted Elliott and Terry Rossio, who previously co-wrote Aladdin while at Disney.

Try as it might, DreamWorks—with Antz, The Road to El Dorado and even Chicken Run—never did have Disney’s animation number. But that changed this year: Mickey Mouse’s summer hopeful, Atlantis: The Lost Empire, with $83 million in ticket sales, wasn’t green machine that Shrek has turned out to be.

So why shouldn’t DreamWorks try to smudge Disney’s only other chance at retaining the animation box-office crown?

“There could be something there under the radar,” Hettrick says. “Maybe they’re trying to undercut Disney a little bit, but it’s hard to say that’s the case.”

Your order is ready

Easier to determine are other winners on a day worth getting animated about. The short list would have to include McDonald’s and Burger King.

The home of the Big Mac, in the midst of a decade-long association with Disney, has launched its Happy Meal promotion tied to Monsters, Inc. And, according to R.J. Milano, senior vice president of domestic marketing for McDonald’s, sales are noticeably better when the kid-aimed meals are tied to a Disney product.

Shrek also has a whopper of a fast-food promotion. Burger King is ballyhooing the video release of the movie with a multi-million dollar ad campaign, and—at each of its locations—door banners, signs in the drive-through areas and a mention on the menus. In return, every DVD and VHS copy of the movie comes with coupons good for two Croissanwiches for $2.

But man does not live on fast food alone—and neither do movies. That’s why there are video games and toys.

Kmart, Toys “R” Us and other retailers have begun advertising an avalanche of Monsters, Inc. toys and assorted goods that includes stuffed characters from the movie, a Life board game, model kit, bed sheets and curtains. Also available is a $40 PlayStation game for ages 6-14; a PS2 game, aimed at the 12-18 set, will be available in March.

Of course, similar Shrek stuff has been in stores since early summer.

But none of that would be available without the movies. And this appears to be the perfect time for Monsters, Inc. and Shrek to invade movie theaters and video stores.

“The marketplace is sort of starved for family entertainment in terms of films,” Dergarabedian says. “You’ve got Training Day, which isn’t for kids; From Hell, definitely not for kids; Riding in Cars With Boys, not a kids’ movie. None of the top 10 films are family oriented.”

The dearth of alternatives opens the door for both Monsters and Shrek.

“I’m sure DreamWorks and Disney would rather you just partake of their entertainment,” Dergarabedian says. “But a lot of families will want to do both. Ultimately, everyone wins in this case. It will show when the numbers come out.”

Getting their just desserts

November 2nd likely won’t be the last time Monsters, Inc. and Shrek share headlines in the movie world. Both are safe-bet Oscar nominees in the newly created animated feature film category. The finalists will be announced in February.

The award marks a huge leap forward for animators, who have always felt slighted for their work. In the history of the Academy Awards, only one animated film—1991’s Beauty and the Beast—has been nominated for best picture.